By : Mely Anggrini
Monday, Juni 17th 2024
BANDUNG, meteo.itb.ac.id – Lecturer in the Meteorology Study Program, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology (FITB) and observer of the climate system, Dr. Joko Wiratmo M.P., held a Casual Chat Webinar “Forecasting the Behavior of La Nina 2024” which took place online via the Zoom Meeting platform, Monday (10/6/2024).
This webinar was attended by various groups spread across all provinces of Indonesia, starting from the provinces of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, North Sumatra, DKI Jakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, to various other provinces.
Dr. Joko Wiratmo, as the organizer of this webinar, hopes that information regarding the weather and climate in Indonesia can be conveyed better, in the sense that there will be no confusion of information and hoax news appearing among Indonesian society.
In his speech, Dr. Joko Wiratmo hopes that this activity can inspire other lecturers, so that they can spread their abilities to the wider community for free, so that people gain enlightenment, increase their abilities, understanding, and complete skills.
Not only that, Dr. Joko invited an observer of environmental and atmospheric issues from BRIN Indonesia, Prof. Dr. Ir. Eddy Hermawan, M.Sc, to participate in thoroughly discussing the issue of the La Nina climate phenomenon currently circulating.
“This activity may not be able to be carried out regularly, depending on whether there are phenomena in society that need to be addressed or not. Although we cannot explain specifically for every region in Indonesia, we can explain in general terms,” said Dr. Joko.
Among the many climate problems that often occur, what is currently a hot topic in the world is El Nino and La Nina climate variability. In recent years, El Nino Modoki was introduced, where Modoki comes from Japanese which means “similar but not the same”. In understanding El Nino and La Nina, attention must be focused on studies of the Pacific Ocean, especially in the area around the equator.
Will La Nina in 2024 really happen or not?
Some time ago, many mass media reported that the La Nina phenomenon would occur, although perhaps without looking at predictions from various other world-class institutions. Moreover, the Head of BMKG (Prof. Dwikorita Karnawati) has also conveyed information regarding the possibility of La Nina to the general public.In developments at the beginning of June, BMKG conveyed the possibility of drought occurring in Indonesia and stated that the current condition of the Pacific Ocean was neutral.
In essence, when the sea surface temperature is in the deviation range of less than -0.5 °C, it indicates the occurrence of the La Niña phenomenon and in the range of more than 0.5 °C, it indicates the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon. However, forecasts from various institutions in the world state that sea surface temperatures are currently in the range of -0.5 °C to 0.5 °C, which means neutral conditions.
Through predictions made by Australia and other institutions, starting from June 2024, global average predictions have been made and the results show that the climate is in a neutral condition in the Pacific Ocean region.
Seven world research institutions from Australia, Canada, Europe, France, England, the United States and Japan which also conducted research on ENSO, provided results that from June to July 2024, sea surface temperatures will be at normal conditions. However, in August to October 2024, one to two institutions showed research results on climate conditions that tended to slightly lead to the occurrence of the La Nina climate phenomenon. This cannot be taken as a definite consideration that La Nina will occur, because the averages from other institutions still show normal climate conditions.
What is the view of the world’s (official) research bodies regarding the evolution of La Nina, both past, present and future (in 2026)?
In general, odd years are an El Nino era, while even years are a La Nina era. Indeed, even years are a new era for La Nina, but for each year, the characteristics of La Nina are not the same.
Based on the time series data, the red line which exceeds the sea surface temperature deviation threshold at 0.5 °C, indicates the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon, while the blue line which is lower than the sea surface temperature deviation at -0.5 °C indicates the occurrence of the La Nina phenomenon. It can be observed at the end of the time series graph, where January 2024 will approach the normal climate tendency phase throughout the year.
“Looking at the weather conditions and seasons in Indonesia, don’t just focus on La Nina. You have to remember that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can dampen it. No matter how big the strength of La Nina, if the IOD is dampened, it won’t have a big impact,” said Prof. Eddie.
Dr. Joko added that based on predictions provided by international models, the opportunity for La Nina to occur remains in certain months depending on the region and the resources of existing research institutions.
“Regarding several areas in Indonesia such as Jakarta to Banten, even if there are dry conditions in June, July, August (JJA), the dry conditions will not be severe and the chance of rain will not decrease or increase significantly. To find out more details, you can look at the predictions made by the BMKG because they use more detailed observation data and they are the ones who have the official right to state the conditions in Indonesia’s territory. What we convey is a general overview and analysis of the weather and seasons that are likely to occur from a global regional perspective,” said Dr. Joko.